CASE STUDY — FORTUNE 50 ENERGY COMPANY
A forecast that tracks reality.
Forecasting demand across wind, solar and total load to guide real-time trading decisions — sourcing, timing and pricing. NEXUS beat the incumbent model by 71%.
The Task
Wind, solar & load forecasting
The Result
71% more accurate
Every megawatt-hour is a trading decision
A Fortune 50 energy company trades power in real time, and every trade rests on a forecast: how much wind and solar will actually generate, and how much total load the grid will need, hours or days out. Get that forecast wrong and the cost shows up immediately — in sourcing decisions made too early, positions timed against the wrong signal, and prices set off a number that missed. The company’s existing model was a known, trusted baseline. The bar for replacing it was a forecast measurably closer to what actually happened.
A forecast run side-by-side with the incumbent
NEXUS was set to forecast the same regions and sources the trading desk already watches — wind, solar and total load — and run in parallel against the customer’s production model, week over week, on real market conditions. Every forecast was tracked down to the hour, so the comparison wasn’t a backtest on old data but a live measure of which model got closer to what the grid actually did.
03 — THE RESULT
more accurate than the customer's production forecast
Translated directly into trading decisions: better sourcing, better-timed positions, and pricing set closer to reality.
04 — THE IMPACT
A tighter forecast, a direct line to margin.
In energy trading, forecast accuracy isn’t an abstract metric — it converts straight into P&L. A tighter read on wind, solar and load means sourcing at the right moment, holding positions with more confidence, and pricing power closer to what the market will actually clear at.
